略過巡覽連結

略過巡覽連結Borica > Product & Industry > Hymer > Newsletter

SubjectAcrylic World Newsletter-Jan. 2019
Published Date2018/12/28
Content

MARKET OVERVIEW

In Asia, MMA prices are facing the toughest challenge as the crude oil prices kept presenting downtrend, declining to US$50 per barrel, and brought about falling demand in every segment. MMA producers are suffering from surplus MMA supply and worsening demand from downstream sectors, and are compelled to reduce price by US$50~100/mt, dampened by competitive MMA price from Saudi Arabia and Brazil MMA maker. On the demand and supply side, the sluggish demand dampened downstream producers of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)/ transparent acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and cast-sheet MMA offtook. On the flip side, Japan and Korea MMA producers scaled back MMA production owing to bearish market climate. It’s heard MCC group cute most MMA plant, by 30% production rate recently and will schedule shut down in Q1, like International Singapore 130kpta MMA plant run at low rate between December 2018 and January 2019, go with shut down in February & March. MCC Huizhou in China 90kpta MMA plant will shut down for maintenance in January 2019. SAMAC α process 250kpta MMA plant at Al Jubail (JV of Mitsubishi Chemical (MCC), and Sabic) scheduled shut down in late October and Lotte MCC Corporation No1 line 90kpta MMA plant in Yeosu, South Korea will shut down in March 2019. As a result, most MMA suppliers tend to stablize MMA prices, while buyers adopt a wait-and-see attitude and refrain from building inventories before Lunar Chinese New Year. On feedstock side, the global economic uncertainties and the trade dispute between China and USA as well as stronger US dollar are dampened crude oil prices and demand growth will be slow in 2019. The crude oil prices went down to US$50~55 per barrel, MMA feedstock propylene prices stabled at US$900~950 pmt after a couple weeks decline. Naphtha prices continue decreasing to US$470~520 pmt. MTBE prices were sharply decreasing to US$550~600 pmt. Methanol prices continue decreasing to US$300~330 pmt. Acetone and ethylene prices continue decreasing to US$400~450 and US$850~950 pmt. MMA prices remain flat, falling to US$2,450 ~ 2,550/mt CFR for January shipment. In Europe, the extremely low water levels in the Rhine river given the loading restriction, leading to shortages of the feedstock and excess of products, hence, the availability of rail tank cars was a major problem for many market, likely Germany and Central Europe. MMA demand appears steady, expecting the strong uptick in demand in the first quarter and stocks at a low level throughout the supply chain. In addition, the Britain seceded from the European Union issue and political turmoil in France, which dampened the market demand in Q1 2019. In America, most MMA upstream acrylonitrile makers are running at high utilization recently. MMA supply appears sufficient but the period of Christmas holiday and New Year holiday worsen the demand.

The outlook for February 2019 was more pessimistic in view of Lunar New Year holiday and abundant MMA availability.

 

NORTH ASIA

In North Asia, shrinking margins and lacklustre demand are seen from all downstream sectors like PMMA, transparent ABS and emulsions. In China, MMA price has been driven down to RMB15,500 ~ 16,500 pmt on the back of sluggish demand and un-cleared economy outlook between the escalating USA and China trade war. On the other hand, most factories cut their MMA inventory before Lunar Chinese New Year because most plants will shut down for 7~10 days during Lunar Chinese New Year, thus, MMA price is estimated to be gloomy before Lunar Chinese New Year. In Japan, market demand appears bearish and MMA producers can’t digest MMA high inventory because of export quantity down 30% already, making Japanese MMA producers reduced their production rate to 60~70%. In Korea, domestic MMA demand appears sluggish on the back of PMMA makers low operation rate, owing to stagnant demand. However, MMA prices stable at (W) 2,800-2,900/KG because of several MMA plants scheduled shut down during October to December. In Taiwan, domestic market remains weak. Most cast sheet makers run at low rate and tried to seek lower MMA prices due to low cast sheet prices came from China, which dampened export market prices. Hence, MMA producers compensated to reduce MMA prices NT$2~3/kg in January 2019. FPC will shut down its 98,000mt plant in February because upstream AN plant proceed annual maintenance at same time. MMA prices were in the range of NT$75 ~ 78/KG DDP.

On the polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) side, most PMMA maker run at low rate, based on buying appetite was depressed amid sharp declines of MMA prices and demand has started to slow down during the rest of this year. The general purpose (GP) PMMA prices were continuing down to $2,500-2,650/mt CFR.  

 

SOUTH ASIA

In South East Asia, cast sheet makers were suffering by the worsened demand, and discussions remained suspension as most buyers still waiting for MMA prices to drop down further before resuming procurement. In Indonesia, domestic market remains stable but exports sale appears weak. The demand in Vietnam is shrinking. In Thailand, domestic market appears lackluster. It’s heard that China MMA producers are more aggressive to grab Southeast Asia market due to low domestic MMA prices. In India, domestic market demand didn’t rebound after rainy season. It’s heard that deep sea cargoes concluded at around US$2,150/mt and delivery in December. MMA prices are in the range of US$2,550~2,650/mt CFR by isotank.

Cast sheet prices are chaotic, prevailing prices are $3.3/kg - $3.4/kg. 


市場概況

在亞洲,MMA價格面臨最嚴峻的挑戰。由於原油價格持續呈現下跌趨勢、每桶下降到50美元,導致市場需求下降。MMA生產商受到MMA產量過剩及下游廠商的需求減少之影響,並受到來自沙烏地阿拉伯MMA及巴西MMA生產商的價格影響,被迫下降50100美元/噸。

從供應跟需求面來看,需求的低迷情況打擊著下游廠商,減少了聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(PMMA/透明丙烯腈 - 丁二烯 - 苯乙烯(ABS)和鑄造板的取貨量。另一方面,日本跟韓國MMA生產商鑒於市場需求的萎靡而減少MMA產量。聽說MCC集團最近將全球的MMA產能減產30%的MMA率,並預計在第一季陸續進行歲修。像是新加坡130kptaMMA工廠在201812月至20191月期間降低產,並在2月和3進行歲修。MCC惠州中國90kpta MMA工廠將於20191月歲修。SAMAC α process250kpta MMA工廠在Al Jubail(三菱化學(MCC)和沙特的合資企業)10月下旬歲修至今,韓國的Lotte MCC Corporation 一號產線90kpta 在麗水的MMA工廠將於20193進行歲修保養。因此,大多數MMA供應商傾向於穩定MMA價格,買家採取觀望態度,並避免在農曆新年前建立庫存。

在原料方面,全球經濟不確定性和中美之間的貿易戰以及美元的升值阻礙了原油價格,2019年的需求成長也緩慢下來。原油價格跌至每桶50~55美元。MMA原料丙烯價格在經過幾週的下跌後穩定在900~950美元/噸。石腦油價格繼續下跌至470美元至520美元。 MTBE價格大幅下跌至550~600美元。甲醇價格繼續下跌至300美元至330美元/噸。 丙酮和乙烯價格繼續下跌至400~450美元和850~950美元。MMA價格持續的下滑,1月裝船價格下跌至2,450~2,550美元/CFR 在歐洲,低水位的萊茵河,導致裝載的限制,市場會面臨到原料短缺和產品過剩的問題; 因此,只能運用鐵路,運輸是一個大問題,像是德國或是中歐。MMA的需求表現穩定,大都數的供應商希望在第一季能提升市場的需求而同時亦能降低目前MMA的高庫存。此外,英國脫離歐盟問題和法國的政治動盪抑制了2019年第一季的市場需求。在美國,大多數MMA上游丙烯腈生產商的產能利用率最近都保持在高水平MMA的供應明顯充足,但聖誕假期和新年假期使需求減少。有鑑於農曆新年假期和MMA供貨充足預估二月份的情形會更為悲觀。

 

北亞

在北亞方面,利潤萎縮跟需求低迷已表現在所有下游,像是PMMA,透明ABS和乳劑等。
在中國,MMA價格已下跌至人民幣15,500~16,500 pmt原因是越演越烈美中貿易戰造成
需求低迷以及經濟前景不明朗。另一方面,大多數工廠在農曆年前減少了MMA庫存,
因為大多數工廠將歲修7~10在農曆假期,因此,農曆年前MMA價格估計
也提振不起來了。在日本,市場需求看淡MMA生產商無法消耗高庫存的MMA,
因為MMA出口數量已下30%,這使日本MMA生產商將產能降60~70左右。在韓國,
國內市場需求呈現停滯,由於PMMA的製造商降低產能,因為需求大減。然而,
MMA價格穩定在W2,800-2,900 / 公斤,因為10月至12月期間有幾家MMA工廠停工檢修。
在台灣,國內市場仍然疲弱。大多數鑄造板材生產商以低產量運行,並試圖尋求較低
的MMA價格,原因是低價競爭的中國的鑄板價格抑制了出口市場價格。
因此,MMA製造決定20191月將MMA價格降低NT$ 2~3/公斤來補償台塑將於2月歲修其9.9萬噸工廠,原因是同一個時間的上游AN工廠進行年度檢修 
MMA價格在NT $ 75~78 / 公斤到貨價

在聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(PMMA)方面,大多數PMMA生產商降低生產,買家看到MMA 的價格大幅下跌以及到了年底需求開始變慢而感到前景悲觀PMMA價格繼續下跌至$ 2,500-2,650 / CFR

 

南亞

在東南亞,鑄造板製造商受到需求降低的影響,且大多數買家仍在等待MMA價格進一步下跌才會恢復購買意願。在印度尼西亞,國內市場保持穩定,但出口明顯變弱。越南的需求正在萎縮。在泰國,國內市場呈現萎靡

。據悉,由於中國MMA生產商更積極地搶占東南亞市場,造成國內市場價格向下調整 在印度,國內市場需求在雨季後沒有反彈。據悉,12月份的遠洋貨的價格約為2,150美元/噸。MMA價格ISOTANK約為2,550~2,650美元/CFR

鑄造板材價格混亂,現行價格為3.3美元/公斤--3.4美元/公斤。



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